Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray?

This paper focuses on: (1) how a select set of financial and economic factors could set the path for interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and (2) whether the resultant realized interest and exchange rates would be in harmony or in disarray. Using post-euro data for the EU and the US, an array of monetary rules is examined. In particular, the paper investigates whether the original and the extended Taylor rules provide an explanation of the dynamics of the EU monetary system since the inception of the euro. Our findings indicate that the EU and the US monetary responses are not the same and that exchange rates play a significant role.     

Across-the-Curve Credit Spread Indices

We design a novel across-the-curve credit spread index, AXI, a measure of the recent cost of wholesale unsecured debt funding for publicly listed US bank holding companies and commercial banks. AXI, a benchmark for bank lending and risk management, is the weighted average of credit spreads for unsecured debt instruments with maturities ranging from overnight to five years, with weights that reflect both transaction and issuance volumes. We provide illustrative output of the bond-based component of AXI. By widening coverage to include all corporate debt issuers, we also build a financial conditions index (FXI).     

调整最低工资政策对中国就业影响的经济分析

2004年4月,新的最低工资规定实施,最低工资问题得到空前的重视。随后,各地区不断对最低工资标准进行调整。最低工资政策的效应在经济学界引起广泛争论。对调整最低工资政策的指责主要来源于其对就业的影响。本文分析了国家提高最低工资标准政策对中国就业总量和劳动力流动的影响。结合中国实际的理论分析表明,在最低工资标准普遍偏低的情况下,适度提高不仅不会造成就业总量损失,还有利于农村剩余劳动力向城镇转移,加快城市化进程。     

效率工资的决定机理及在薪酬管理中的作用

效率工资理论认为 ,支付比市场工资更高的工资 ,劳动总成本可能更小 ,企业能获得更多的利润。工作转换模型表明 ,在其他条件不变时 ,企业支付较高的工资可以降低工人的工作转换率。效率工资理论在理论上和现实的薪酬管理中都展示了极其强大的威力。     

新一轮工资改革中若干政策选择的思考

在2000年开始的新一轮企事业单位工资改革中，一些企事业单位遇到的问题，如：是否应严格执行国家事业单位的工资标准；企业、事业改革办法是否“一刀切”；是实行行政级别工资制还是实行职位工资制；是秘薪制还是明薪制；是一岗一薪制还是一岗多薪制等，面临着政策选择或再选择的决策问题。     

行业间工资差异和垄断租金分享

以产业门类为基准测算的中国行业间工资差异明显且自1988年以来呈现逐步上升趋势，随着产业细分，行业间工资差异进一步提高。对劳动市场工资决定的理论分析表明，行业间工资差异主要源于各行业就业人员的人力资本差异和可能的垄断租金分享。实证研究中发现，就业人员性别、年龄和教育等就业人员特征只能解释行业平均报酬变差系数的60％左右，其余部分源于垄断行业的租金分享。其中，技术／知识型市场垄断行业租金分享比例不高，但非竞争性垄断行业普遍获得了超额报酬，约占其行业高工资的50％以上。后者超额报酬和超水平高福利主要源于相关行业无偿或低成本的自然资源占用和国有资产经营、攫取消费者福利、成本膨胀亏损的财政或社会公众补贴，因此要从其垄断机理和初次分配制度上改革以建立公平收入分配秩序。     

名义工资粘性与货币政策传导机制

货币政策的传导机制包括两个环节。第一个环节是货币供给作用于总需求，第二个环节是总需求作用于产出。在第二个环节，需求的变化能否引起产出的调整取决于名义粘性的存在性及其强弱。名义粘性包括工资粘性和价格粘性，工资粘性是价格粘性存在的前提条件，所以名义工资粘性是解释货币产出效应的基础。中国劳动力市场在不完全竞争的基础上具有一些特质，因而工资粘性很强并且形成的微观原因很特殊。极强的工资粘性保证了货币政策在第二环节的效果。这一结论为分析影响货币政策效果的因素找到了一个突破口，也为进一步优化货币政策传导机制找到了方向。     

资本渐进开放下我国与国际利率的联动分析——基于中国和美国的比较

一般来说,利率在国家间的传导主要有两条渠道:国际贸易间的传导和资本自由流动下的利率平价机制。本文采取分阶段考察,通过建立计量经济学模型,利用单位根检验和协整分析加以验证,发现在资本项目部分开放后,中美利率开始具有联动效应,作用方式又具有自身的特点。目前资本项目开放度不够高是阻碍我国同世界利率联动的主要原因。     

第二、三产业生产总值之和与农民工资性收入关系透析

我国农民的纯收入主要来源于家庭经营性收入和工资性收入。在VAR模型基础上,分析了现阶段农民工资性收入与我国第二、三产业的生产总值之和同步发展变化情况,并阐述了它们相互变动对自身和对方影响程度的传导机制。并以此为依据,提出农民工资性收入与第二、三产业生产总值之和应协整发展。     

Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.